In advance of Tuesday’s New York primary elections, the Daily Messenger turned to Professor of Political Science Iva Deutchman for her insight and predictions about the race.
In “NY voters get their turn Tuesday,” Deutchman, an expert on contemporary conservative U.S. politics, told the Daily Messenger that “watching what has happened with Republicans is just incredible…[After the 2012 election] there was all this talk about a serious discussion about how they lost and why they lost…Everything tells me they never had that discussion.”
With an increasingly young, diverse electorate, Deutchman said she does not foresee the GOP growing its appeal to that electorate in the near future. “Millennials coming into their own are socially liberal,” she said. “They are not for laws against gays, politicians squabbling over bathroom bills and laws that say, ‘No birth control for you.'”
That narrowing appeal might not bode well for democracy at large, Deutchman continued, as “our society is better served by a real contest.”
On the Democratic side of the presidential race in New York, she predicts a win for Hillary Clinton. “I think Hillary will win, I think she will win big,” she said in the article, adding that in 2016, regarding of Bernie Sanders, “Americans are not going to vote for a self-identified socialist.”
Deutchman holds a Ph.D. and a master’s degree in political science from the University of Pennsylvania, and a bachelor’s degree from Hofstra University in political science and economics. A professor of more than 20 years with a long list of publications in major journals, Deutchman is frequently featured in national and local news media.
The full article from the Daily Messenger follows below:
NY voters get their turn Tuesday
All five candidates in Tuesday’s primary made appearances in recent days in the Rochester region as Republican and Democrats statewide prepare to vote their pick.
After months of watching from afar as the presidential candidates stumped across the nation, voters in the Rochester area in recent days got their closeup. Democratic Hillary Clinton at Monroe Community College and Riverside Convention Center. GOP candidates Ohio Gov. John Kasich at Greece Town Hall, Donald Trump at Rochester International Airport and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at MCC’s athletic complex; and Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders came to MCC’s Brighton campus.
On Tuesday, Rochester area residents – and voters across New York – will tell us what they think. Presidential primary polls open at noon Tuesday.
With the Democrats, polls show Clinton has a double-digit lead over Sanders headed into New York, though Sanders has gained ground in recent months. On the GOP side, most projections indicate Trump stands the best chance of winning New York, followed by Kasich and Cruz.
John Hurley, chairman of the Ontario County Democratic Committee, headed this weekend to the Democratic Rural Conference in Albany where former President Bill Clinton was scheduled to speak on behalf of his wife, Hillary Clinton. The conference was to host as well a representative for Sanders. Of course, the hundreds of Democratic party leaders gathering from across the state did not need convincing to vote for one of their party’s two candidates.
“The good news is that lots of people are working hard for two good candidates,” said Hurley.
The Ontario County Democratic Committee stopped short of endorsing a presidential candidate, as members did not see any gains from taking an official position on either candidate.
“Folks are very active with both Sanders and Clinton campaigns,” said Hurley.
Though Hillary Clinton is expected to win in New York – a win that would likely pave her way to the White House – some are concerned with how the fervor over Sanders would play out at the polls in November if Sanders is not the nominee. Hurley remains confident in a Democratic win.
“What people feel in the heat of April, before the primary, can change by Nov. 8,” he said.
Iva Deutchman is professor of political science at Hobart and William Smith Colleges in Geneva.
“I think Hillary will win, I think she will win big,” said Deutchman, adding that in 2016, speaking of Sanders, “Americans are not going to vote for a self-identified socialist.”
On the Republican side, billionaire businessman Donald Trump has caught most of the media attention as well as support from a slew of upstate GOP politicians. Those on the official Trump for President Campaign Inc. include several representing the Rochester/Finger Lakes region: U.S. Reps. Chris Collins of Clarence and Tom Reed of Corning, who both represent parts of Ontario County; and Assemblyman Bill Nojay, R-Pittsford and Yates County GOP Chairwoman Sandy King.
“Donald Trump has clearly demonstrated that he has both the guts and the fortitude to return our nation’s jobs stolen by China, take on our enemies like ISIS, Iran, North Korea and Russia, and most importantly, re-establish the opportunity for our children and grandchildren to attain the American Dream,” Collins stated in a release. Collins aligned himself with Trump in his endorsement by saying they share a common background of being successful businessmen and entrepreneurs.
In his endorsement, Reed urged support for Trump as “the candidate who I believe will be our nominee.”
“We must move beyond the bombastic rhetoric to positive discussion about creating jobs and improving the lives of all Americans. We all care about improving people’s lives – that should always be our focus,” Reed said. “I will use my voice to influence all Republican candidates at all levels to focus on issues and positive solutions for all Americans.”
Ontario County Republican Committee chairman Doug Finch has not endorsed Trump, though he said he will support the candidate who ends up being the Republican nominee.
In a straw poll taken by the county GOP committee at last month, Trump received just under 45 percent, followed by candidate John Kasich and Ted Cruz.
“Because Trump did not receive the two-thirds we could not say that the Ontario County Republican Committee has endorsed him although he does lead the other candidates,” Finch said.
Meanwhile, Assembly Minority Leader Brian Kolb, R-Canandaigua, recently met with Kasich in Albany and promoted the meeting with photos and press release. Kolb and members of the Assembly Minority Conference talked with Kasich about issues such as job creation and education standards, and “dynamics of the presidential primaries and national election,” according to the release.
Last Sunday’s Trump rally at the Rochester International Airport drew thousands of people – both supporter and protesters. Though peaceful for the most part, things got heated as people exited the rally with the opposing groups often yelling at each other over four lanes of traffic.
Professor Deutchman teaches a course in American Conservatism. Her teaching and study of the Conservative Movement has involved attending with students the annual Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, D.C., hearing from influential figures and befriending the movers and shakers of the movement.
“Watching what has happened with Republicans is just incredible,” Deutchman said. She said after the 2012 election “there was all this talk about a serious discussion about how they lost and why they lost.”
“Everything tells me they never had that discussion,” she said.
She talked specifically about young voters, the millennials who will be voting for decades to come.
“Millennials coming into their own are socially liberal,” said Deutchman. They are not for laws against gays, politicians squabbling over bathroom bills and laws that say, ‘No birth control for you,'” she said. Women, people from diverse backgrounds, ethnicity and so forth are making up much more of the voter base, Deutchman added, saying she doesn’t see the GOP appealing to them.
Deutchman said she tells her students: “I don’t care if you are the most passionate Democrat. Our society is better served by a real contest.”
But right now, she doesn’t see a real contest.